With the NBA summer comes the endless rumors of players and the obligatory photoshopped jersey swaps. For the Thunder that more often than not means whispers that become sweet nothings, floating from rival executives into the wind before it ever materializes inside OKC’s front office.
Last week, that wind blew in from Chicago. Bulls forward Patrick Williams, an unrestricted free agent this summer following his rookie deal, was linked to Oklahoma City as a possible trade target this offseason.
The Oklahoman examined Williams’ fit, his market value, any projections that could help make sense of the rumor and envisioned its possibility:
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Patrick Williams' fit and projection with OKC Thunder
Patrick Williams, in theory, is the prototypical combo-wing that could complete a team. He’s 6-foot-7 and an intense summer away from being in a weight class that could see him truly operate as an impactful combo forward.
And in theory, he fills some of Oklahoma City’s needs.
Without being an offense-changing, airborne 7-footer, Williams had a stellar year as an offensive rebounder before going down with a season-ending injury in January. He finished in Synergy’s 93rd percentile there. He also shot 39.9% on 3.4 attempts from 3, not so much a need as a requirement to thrive in the Oklahoma City offense. He was fine as a lower-volume, second-side operating pick-and-roll ball handler. He’s flashed elite defense, which is especially valuable given his mold.
The idea of Williams, if the next chapter of his career is to see him rejuvenated, is that he can be the next impactful wing that changes a team’s trajectory. For OKC, that means being the power forward that completes both sides of their operation.
But Williams has his flaws, reasons why it’s unclear now whether he’ll be dealt away or if he’ll remain as one of the Bulls’ few promising assets once the smoke clears.
Inside a injury-plagued roster left plateauing, Williams hardly earned the on-ball reps to change his own trajectory. Missing a chunk of the season didn’t help. With the way the Thunder roster has shaped up, it’s unclear if that opportunity would present itself in OKC. But the idea of Williams — at least as the final chip that nets a team all its winnings — isn’t that he’d be much more than someone who can make solid reads when attacking closeouts or the occasional pick-and-roll. For the Thunder, he’d be put in position to be a necessary off-ball piece.
There are multiple layers to gravity, though. Williams has the shooting part down. The rest is raw.
Virtually everyone ends up screening for the Thunder, and sufficient data for Williams as a roll man is nonexistent. He had 11 such possessions last season before his season ended, finishing in Synergy’s first-percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man. He finished in the 11th percentile a season earlier. He finished this past season shooting an egregrious 47.4% from 2-point range.
If the hope is to blend into a team with drive-and-kick DNA, the finishing is problematic. Dallas gave OKC a glimpse of how tough decision making windows could be with ball handlers like Lu Dort being run off the line. Yet even Dort shot 50.6% from 2 last season.
If that’s something the Thunder feels it can alter — whether through changing Williams' shot diet, changing his actual diet to add strength, or simply using him differently — then the conversation changes. But it leaves teams across the league likely questioning what Williams’ value is as a restricted free agent this summer, and what the cost should be to get him.
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Pat Williams' market value
Williams was reportedly offered a deal with an annual value of more than $16 million when negotiations stalled in the fall, ultimately leading him to become a restricted free agent.
If that’s the number to beat, it prompts an interesting discussion of value, both for the market of wings and for an Oklahoma City team that’ll see a huge drop off on the books after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s annual salary.
With the remainder of Gordon Hayward’s hefty contract nearly in the rearview, anything above Lu Dort’s average annual value of $16.5 million would make Patrick Williams the Thunder’s second highest paid player annually.
A look at the market of forwards and wings begs the question of how much projection Williams can net in negotiations.
Dillon Brooks, a proven defensive stalwart and glue guy who shot nearly 36% from 3 this past season, is entering the second year of a deal that’ll see him earn $22.2 million in 2024-25.
Aaron Gordon, viewed by many as the piece that elevated Denver into contention, approaches the third year of a deal that’ll earn him $22.8 million next year.
De’Andre Hunter, despite a more clearly defined role and more scoring production than Williams, is a wing that the Hawks have similarly held out hope for in terms of upside. He’s entering the second year of a contract that’ll see him make $21.7 next season — with the same average annual value as Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma.
Next season will be the first of Deni Avdija’s rookie extension, which will see him make $15.6 million on a yearly decline.
Twenty million dollars annually would make Williams the 32nd highest paid forward in the league, a hair above New York’s Bojan Bogdanovic. Considering where negotiations with Chicago reportedly ended, it seems Williams feels he can command something between $18-$20 million annually.
A deal valued in that range isn’t unreasonable to trade for if a team feels it can set Williams on a hopeful path. No one holds a trove of assets quite like the Thunder. But for OKC, it would have to be a move it’s comfortable with making the headliner of its offseason; a sign-and-trade for the Thunder, a team expected to be operating with top-five league wide cap space, would trigger a hard cap.
Of course, that’s if Bulls decision maker Arturas Karnisovas, who’s made just one trade since August 2021, is prepared to truly pivot and act on his claims from a fiery exit interview.
The Thunder’s alternative would be to provide an offer sheet that the Bulls wouldn’t be comfortable matching. Twenty million dollars? That might be too close. Twenty-three million dollars, which would earn Williams more annually than Mikal Bridges but less than Cam Johnson?
Aspirations and projections aside, Williams’ price could prove to be too hefty for OKC to be comfortable with during such a significant offseason.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder 2024 trade rumors: Would Chicago's Patrick Williams fit?
